All About Long Island

There is so much discussion in the press and the blogosphere about NAR’s decision to start an ad campaign in order to counteract some of the doomsayers’ predictions of a precipitous fall in real estate prices.  Short on memory or steeped in drama, the media at first having denied the existence of a bubble, then backtracking and announcing it and their subsequent take on the “burst,” blasted the airwaves with a defeatist scenario.   The last time I checked, none of us had a working crystal ball.  If we did, I suspect we’d pick the winning lottery numbers or the next Microsoft and not waste our time in the business of selling or reporting on real estate. 

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan announced in mid-2005 that “at a minimum, there’s a little ‘froth’ (in the U.S. housing market) … it’s hard not to see that there are a lot of local bubbles.” President Bush said of the U.S. housing boom in early 2006 “If houses get too expensive, people will stop buying them … Economies should cycle,” and cycle they do.  The problem with all the prognosticating about a crash or hard landing for the real estate market is the probability of it becoming a self fulfilling prophesy.  Say anything often enough and people start to believe it, especially if it comes from a “credible” source.

It’s understandable then that the National Association of Realtors would take a stand on behalf of its constituency and attempt to counteract the negative press and stampeding mentality of those paid to publish bad news.